Menzie Chinn Bears Bad News

He writes:>Econbrowser: GDP Snapshot: First Read on 2009Q1: Just a quick post to highlight the OECD’s recent forecast [0] for the US (-7.2% SAAR decline in 2009Q1), and e-forecasting’s latest take (6.8% SAAR decline in 2009M03). Note that forecasted GDP… is above the level implied by e-forecasting. E-forecasting’s estimate is that GDP will be down by 9.9% (SAAR) in 2009Q1. If this more dire forecast proves accurate (Deutsche Bank predicts -8.0% SAAR), then — as Brad Delong likes to say — we’ll need a bigger stimulus package…


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