Menzie Chinn Bears Bad News

He writes:>Econbrowser: GDP Snapshot: First Read on 2009Q1: Just a quick post to highlight the OECD’s recent forecast [0] for the US (-7.2% SAAR decline in 2009Q1), and e-forecasting’s latest take (6.8% SAAR decline in 2009M03). Note that forecasted GDP… is above the level implied by e-forecasting. E-forecasting’s estimate is that GDP will be down by 9.9% (SAAR) in 2009Q1. If this more dire forecast proves accurate (Deutsche Bank predicts -8.0% SAAR), then — as Brad Delong likes to say — we’ll need a bigger stimulus package…

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s